Plaid Cymru surges ahead in Senedd Election Polls

The latest poll conducted by YouGov for Cardiff University has revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share for the Senedd has now fallen to 10%, while Plaid Cymru continue to lead with 33% (+3%). Reform UK’s support – at 30% – remains unchanged since the September ITV Wales YouGov poll.

The Senedd (Welsh Parliament) general election will be held on 7 May 2026.

Senedd voting intention (excluding non-voters and Don’t Knows):

Plaid Cymru 33%

Reform UK 30%

Labour 10%

Conservatives 10%

Green 9%

Lib Dem 6%

Other 3%

Dr Jac Larner’s Seat Projection:

Plaid Cymru – 39

Reform UK – 34

Labour – 10

Conservatives – 6

Green – 4

Lib Dem – 3

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said,

“Something big is truly happening in Wales.

“Coming so soon after our Caerphilly by-election win, this poll shows the momentum is firmly with Plaid Cymru and that next year’s election is shaping up to be a straight choice for Wales’ future.

“After years in power, Labour have given up on Wales. People are tired of broken promises and being taken for granted and yearning for something new: fairness, ambition, and a government that finally puts Wales first.

“At the next election, the people of Wales face two choices of two futures. One is a party rooted in Wales, focused on improving our NHS, public services, and helping families with the cost of living. The other is a billionaire-backed party that would privatise our NHS and take Wales backwards.

“This is a two-horse race, and only Plaid Cymru brings a positive vision, can stop Reform and deliver the new leadership Wales deserves.

“We’re taking nothing for granted, but if people want new leadership and a government that’s on Wales’ side, the choice is clear – get involved and vote Plaid Cymru on 7 May 2026.”