The new poll by Camlas Public Affairs for the Caerphilly by-election suggests that Reform UK has taken a narrow lead in what appears to be a two-horse race for the seat.
According to the data, Reform UK’s Llyr Powell is polling at 42%, placing him ahead of Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle, who stands at 38%.
Welsh Labour trails in third place with 15%, while the Conservatives are on 4%. The Green Party holds 3%, and the Liberal Democrats register just 1% support.
The results indicate a significant shift in voter sentiment, with Reform UK emerging as a major contender in an area traditionally dominated by Labour.
We reached out to Reform UK following the recent poll showing Reform candidate Llyr Powell leading with 42%. A Reform UK spokesperson said:
“The Cardiff Bay establishment is going to throw everything at this by-election to try and prevent real change for the people of Caerphilly.
“Our message to people in Caerphilly is simple: Vote Reform to end 100 years of Labour rule.”
We also heard from Welsh Labour, down to a predicted 12% of the vote. Following the BBC debate a spokesperson said:
“You can’t trust Reform. Whether it’s immigration figures or protecting our NHS, you just don’t know what you’re getting with them. Is it worth the risk?
“And Plaid Cymru spent their time talking big picture but absolutely nothing on delivery. Classic Plaid Cymru – all constitution, no concrete actions.
“Welsh Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe is the only option for delivery in Caerphilly.”
Finally, we heard from Plaid Cymru, also following the BBC debate. A Plaid spokesperson said:
“Lindsay Whittle was the clear winner. Mr Caerphilly lived up to his reputation as a passionate, principled and hardworking champion for the community he calls home
“It was clearer than ever this evening that Labour have well and truly run out of steam and Reform have nothing to offer but negativity and scaremongering.
“The people of Caerphilly deserve a strong and authentic voice in the Senedd who understands what standing up for them really means. Lindsay Whittle was the only candidate offering just that in tonight’s debate.”
So far, we have had no comment from the Welsh Conservatives, the Green Party or the Welsh Lib Dems.
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