MAY SENEDD ELECTION 2026

📅 Poll: 7 May 2026

SENEDD ELECTION

2026

Sir Gaerfyrddin / Carmarthenshire — Everything You Need to Know

POLLING DAY: THURSDAY 7 MAY 2026

THIS ELECTION IS DIFFERENT. HERE’S WHY YOU SHOULD CARE.

This isn’t just another election. For the first time in Welsh history, 2026 uses a fully proportional voting system, meaning every single vote counts properly. Whether you’re 16 or 60, your ballot in Carmarthenshire could genuinely decide who runs Wales for the next four years. The Senedd controls your NHS, your schools, your roads and your future.

Wales gets £1 in every £5 of public spending that goes directly to things like hospitals, schools and housing, all decided by the Senedd. This is YOUR money. This is YOUR future. Choose who spends it.

🏥 It controls the NHS

Waiting lists, GP surgeries, Glangwili Hospital, all Senedd decisions. One in four people in Wales is on an NHS waiting list right now.

🎓 It shapes your education

From your GCSEs to university tuition fees to Welsh-medium schools, the Senedd decides. Wales scrapped tuition fees briefly, it can happen again.

🌍 Climate is on the ballot

Carmarthenshire’s coast, farms and air quality are all affected by Welsh Government decisions on green energy, water quality and planning.

 

YOU CAN VOTE AT 16. HERE’S FIVE REASONS TO DO IT

01: Your generation pays the price

Climate change, unaffordable housing, NHS pressures, these land hardest on young people. Older generations already vote in large numbers. Your voice is missing.

02: Your job prospects depend on it

Employment policy, apprenticeships, business support, the Welsh Government shapes them all. Carmarthenshire’s youth unemployment matters to the Senedd.

03: Proportional voting means your vote isn’t wasted

New system = your vote actually counts. Under the old system, safe seats meant millions of votes were irrelevant. Not anymore.

04: It takes 5 minutes

Register online at gov.uk/register-to-vote before 20 April 2026. Polling day is Thursday 7 May, 7am–10pm. No ID needed. Easy.

05: Extremism grows when young people don’t vote

Across Europe, far-right parties surge when youth turnout drops. You have the power to shape Welsh politics, but only if you use it.

📋 How to Vote

VOTING IS EASIER THAN YOU THINK, HERE’S HOW

The new Sir Gaerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire) constituency covers Caerfyrddin and Llanelli, electing 6 Members of the Senedd. You get one vote, you vote for a party (not an individual), and seats are shared out proportionally.

1: Register to vote at gov.uk/register-to-vote by 20 April 2026. You must be 16+ on polling day.

2: Want a postal vote? Apply by 5pm, 21 April 2026. Call 01267 228889 or email [email protected]

3: Find your polling station using your voter registration card. Stations open 7am to 10pm on Thursday 7 May 2026.

4: No photo ID needed for Welsh Senedd elections, just your polling card. Go in, get your ballot, and mark your chosen party with an X.

5: You vote for a party, not a person. Seats go to parties based on vote percentage. The more votes a party gets, the more MSs are elected from their list.

📬 Key Deadlines

• 20 April — Register to vote deadline
• 21 April, 5pm — Postal vote deadline
• 28 April, 5pm — Proxy vote deadline
• 7 May, 7am–10pm — POLLING DAY

🆕 What’s Changed

• Wales now has 16 constituencies (was 40)
• Each elects 6 MSs per seat (was 1)
• Senedd now has 96 members (was 60)
• You vote for a party list, not individuals
• Elections every 4 years (was 5)

🔥 What Matters Most

THE BIG ISSUES IN CARMARTHENSHIRE RIGHT NOW

From overflowing A&E departments to rural broadband black spots, here are the six issues dominating the doorstep conversation across Sir Gaerfyrddin.

🏥 NHS

Glangwili Hospital waiting lists. Over 700,000 people across Wales are waiting for treatment. West Wales General is under pressure. Hywel Dda health board is facing a restructure that could affect services.

📚 Education

Wales ranks bottom in the UK in PISA international tests for maths, reading and science. School budgets are stretched. Welsh-medium education demand is rising.

💼 Employment

Carmarthenshire has high economic inactivity and low wages. The collapse of manufacturing and rural job insecurity mean many young people leave the county.

🔒 Crime

Rural crime, drug misuse, and community safety top local concerns. Dyfed-Powys Police resource levels and policing models are Senedd-adjacent issues.

💷 Economy

Cost of living crisis, high energy bills, small business closures in Llanelli and Carmarthen town centres. Wales has the lowest GVA (economic output) per head in the UK.

🌿 Climate

River pollution (the Tywi and Gwendraeth face sewage discharge issues), offshore wind development in the Celtic Sea, flooding risk and agricultural subsidy post-Brexit.

THE PARTY REPORT CARDS: 1999–2026

The National Assembly for Wales was established in 1999. For 27 years, parties have governed, opposed and shaped Wales. Here’s the honest scorecard — successes, failures and scandals included.

🔴 Welsh Labour, The Governing Party

In power 1999–present 7 consecutive elections

Welsh Labour has governed Wales since devolution began, the longest unbroken run of any party in any devolved legislature in the world. First Ministers: Alun Michael, Rhodri Morgan, Carwyn Jones, Mark Drakeford, Eluned Morgan.

✅ Successes

• Free prescriptions, Wales was first in UK, 2007
• Free school breakfasts for primary pupils
• Organ donation opt-out law, first in UK, 2015
• 20mph default speed limit in residential areas
• Record investment in Welsh-medium education
• Well-being of Future Generations Act, world-leading legislation
• Free bus travel for under-22s (2022)
• Abolished the Right to Buy in Wales

❌ Failures & Scandals

• NHS waiting lists worst in UK, over 700,000 patients waiting
• Wales bottom of UK PISA education rankings for 20 years
• Wales has lowest GDP per head of any UK nation
• Carwyn Jones/Carl Sargeant affair, MS died amid misconduct inquiry; handling heavily criticised
• PPE procurement scandal during Covid, overpayments, contracts to political donors
• Lesley Griffiths ‘expenses garden’ controversy
• All Welsh Labour MPs voted AGAINST devolving the Crown Estate to Wales
• Sewage discharges in Welsh rivers, failed enforcement
• Welsh ambulance waiting times among worst in Europe

🟢 Plaid Cymru, Loyal Opposition

Junior coalition 2007–11 Co-operation agreement 2021–24

Plaid has been the main opposition party since 1999, with stints in coalition and formal cooperation with Labour. Leaders: Ieuan Wyn Jones, Leanne Wood, Adam Price, Rhun ap Iorwerth. Strong roots in Carmarthenshire, historically one of their key heartlands.

✅ Successes

• Pressured Labour into major policy wins in coalition (2007–11)
• Key force behind Welsh Language legislation and services
• Championed £500m Learner Travel policy in coalition
• Strong record on climate and nature protection legislation
• Forced Labour to commit to childcare expansion through co-op deal
• Major gains in 2021 and 2024 elections, now the largest opposition
• Adam Price led strong scrutiny of NHS and education failures

❌ Failures & Controversies

• Adam Price resigned as leader amid workplace harassment investigation, 2023
• Co-operation agreement with Labour, critics say Plaid got little in return
• Internal divisions over independence timeline and direction
• Failed to break through into government despite 25 years of trying
• Split membership on EU membership position after Brexit

🔵 Welsh Conservatives

Largest opposition 2011–21

The Tories have been in permanent opposition in Wales since devolution, though they topped the 2019 General Election share in Wales.

✅ Highlights

• Passed two Wales Acts strengthening devolution (Westminster)
• Strong scrutiny role on NHS and education failures
• Paul Davies, strong Carmarthenshire MS voice on health issues

❌ Low Points

• Andrew RT Davies leadership seen as chaotic and divisive
• UK Tory governments repeatedly cut Wales funding
• 2022 local elections, major losses to Plaid and Labour
• Massive vote collapse in 2024 General Election in Wales

🟡 Welsh Liberal Democrats

Coalition 2000–03

The Lib Dems formed a partnership government with Labour from 2000–2003. They’ve since declined sharply in Wales.

✅ Best bits

• Coalition brought in free prescriptions pilot
• Strong on cross-border NHS in Powys

❌ Problems

• Decimated by coalition with Tories at Westminster (2010–15)
• Lost all Senedd seats in 2016, still recovering

🩵 Reform UK, New force

Reform is brand new to devolved politics but surging in polls. No track record of governance, that’s their pitch.

✅ Potential

• Gareth Beer near-won Llanelli in 2024 GE
• Strong anti-establishment appeal among working class voters

❌ Controversies

• March 2026: Leading Wales candidate quits over Nazi salute photo
• No Welsh policy platform, critics say England-focused
• Farage’s link to Epstein associate controversy (Mandelson)

🌿 Wales Green Party, Growing Force

The Wales Green Party has never won a Senedd seat, but 2026 could change everything. Under the new proportional voting system and with national Green momentum following UK by-election gains, the party enters this election with genuine expectations of a breakthrough. Anthony Slaughter leads the party. Notably, a Carmarthenshire county councillor, Robert, from the Lliedi ward in Llanelli, defected from Labour to the Greens in 2025, giving the party its first-ever councillor defection from a major party in Wales.

✅ Achievements & Strengths

• First-ever Welsh councillor defection from Labour, Lliedi ward, Carmarthenshire, 2025
• Won 8 council seats in 2022 Welsh local elections, party best ever
• Strong environmental policy: net zero by 2030, Celtic Sea wind, river clean-up
• Rent controls pledge resonating with young renters across Wales
• Held Dŵr Cymru/Welsh Water to account over sewage discharge
• Backed Welsh independence and Senedd expansion before others
• Membership nearly tripled in 2025 after national Green surge

❌ Weaknesses & Challenges

• Never won a Senedd seat in six elections since 1999
• Excluded from BBC Wales leaders’ debates in 2021, limited media profile
• Small grassroots base makes Wales-wide campaigning difficult
• Risk of splitting the progressive vote with Plaid Cymru
• No track record of governance at any Welsh devolved level

SIR GAERFYRDDIN: WHO’S RUNNING?

Sir Gaerfyrddin will have 25+ candidates on the ballot, spread across parties. Under the new proportional list system, you vote for a party, and their listed candidates are elected in order. Here are the key figures vying for Carmarthenshire’s 6 Senedd seats.

🟢 Plaid Cymru

1. Cefin Campbell MS, Sitting MS, Lead Candidate

Experienced Senedd member, strong local campaigner. Pledges to protect Welsh language services, expand rural healthcare and support Carmarthenshire farmers post-Brexit.

2. Nerys Evans, Former Assembly Member

Experienced campaigner. Focused on education standards, NHS reform and women’s issues. Long community ties in Carmarthenshire.

3. Adam Price, Former Plaid Cymru Leader

Controversial comeback after resigning as leader. Brings economic expertise, pushing for a Welsh Development Agency and closing the economic gap with England.

Also: Mari Arthur, Iwan Griffiths, Abi Thomas

Key Pledge: Fix the NHS, deliver a “made in Wales” government, expand Welsh-medium education. Oppose Reform UK.

🔴 Welsh Labour

1. Calum Higgins, Lead Candidate

Labour’s lead voice in Sir Gaerfyrddin. Focused on protecting public services and maintaining Labour’s record on progressive policies like free prescriptions and free bus travel.

2. Dawn Evans, Local Labour Candidate

Community organiser. Focused on women’s health, housing, and cost of living issues across the county.

3. Martyn Palfreman, Local Labour Candidate

Focused on economic regeneration in Llanelli and protecting workers’ rights.

Also: David Darkin, Lewis Davies, Andre McPherson

Key Pledge (Eluned Morgan): £4 billion “hospitals of the future” programme. Protect the NHS from Reform.

🩵 Reform UK

1. Gareth Beer, Business Owner, Kidwelly Town Cllr

Came within 1,500 votes of winning Llanelli in 2024. Pledges to slash NHS waiting lists, boost small businesses, cut immigration. Anti-establishment pitch.

Also: Carmelo Colasanto, Sarah Edwards, Christopher Brooke, Alan Cole, Michelle Beer

🔵 Welsh Conservatives

1. Richard Williams, Conservative Lead Candidate

Backing Conservative manifesto: M4 Relief Road, 1p income tax cut, Welsh Development Agency revival, reversing 20mph default limit.

🟡 Liberal Democrats

1. Justin Griffiths, Lib Dem Lead Candidate

Strong on mental health, cross-border NHS, and proportional democracy. Running with six candidates in Sir Gaerfyrddin.

Also: Julian Tandy, Jonathan Burree, Lynne Wilkins, Monica French, Caryl Tandy, Maggie Robinson

🌿 Wales Green Party, Sir Gaerfyrddin Candidates

With the new proportional voting system, Greens believe they can win their first-ever Senedd seat in Wales. Their Sir Gaerfyrddin list is led by Rob James — a local councillor who made the dramatic switch from Labour to Green — and backed by five dedicated candidates. Their campaign focuses on sewage clean-up, rent controls, green jobs and a fairer Wales.

1. Rob James, Lead Candidate, County Councillor, Lliedi Ward

Rob was formerly the youngest Labour group leader in Wales before making a high-profile defection to the Green Party in 2025. A local councillor in Llanelli’s Lliedi ward, he brings genuine community credibility and a well-known local name to the Green cause. He pledges to hold Welsh Water to account over sewage in local rivers, push for green jobs in the Llanelli area, and champion affordable housing through rent controls.

2. Nick Pearce, Green Party Candidate

Committed Green campaigner focused on climate action, renewable energy transition and community wellbeing. Advocates for Carmarthenshire to lead on Celtic Sea offshore wind jobs and green skills training for young people in the county.

3. Craig Davies, Green Party Candidate

Focused on rural and agricultural issues, Craig brings a grassroots perspective on land use, food security and sustainable farming in Carmarthenshire. Supports a just transition for farmers as Wales moves toward a greener economy.

4. David Lishman, Green Party Candidate

Strong advocate for public transport investment, active travel infrastructure and decarbonising Carmarthenshire’s transport network. Believes bus and rail must be genuinely free and reliable for all young people in Wales.

5. Helen Draper, Green Party Candidate

Campaigns on social justice, women’s rights and health inequality. Helen believes a Green Senedd would invest in mental health services, tackle the gender pay gap, and ensure no family in Carmarthenshire goes cold or hungry.

6. Mike Willis, Green Party Candidate

Focused on holding polluters accountable and improving water quality in the River Tywi and Gwendraeth. Mike supports stronger planning powers for Welsh communities to resist unwanted development and protect the local environment.

🌿 Green Party Key Pledges for Wales:

Introduce rent controls across Wales · Clean up rivers polluted by Welsh Water · Achieve net zero by 2030 · Free public transport for all under-22s · Invest in green jobs through Celtic Sea offshore wind · Hold corporations accountable for environmental damage · Support Welsh independence as a long-term goal.

📊 Party Scorecard

HOW DO THE PARTIES SCORE ON CARMARTHENSHIRE’S KEY ISSUES?

We’ve rated each party’s pledges and track record across the six issues that matter most to Sir Gaerfyrddin voters. A = Strong / B = Good / C = Mixed / D = Weak / F = Failing

Issue	🔴 Labour	🟢 Plaid	🩵 Reform	🔵 Tory	🟡 Lib Dem	🌿 Green
🏥 NHS	D — 700K+ waiting	B — Reform plans	C — Pledges cut waits	C — Scrutiny only	B — Mental health focus	B — NHS investment pledge
📚 Education	D — PISA bottom	B — Bilingual push	C — Standards pledge	C — Testing & standards	B — Childcare focus	B — Free uni, equality
💼 Employment	C — Mixed record	B — Green jobs plan	C — SME support	B — WDA revival	C — Local economy	B — Green jobs focus
🔒 Crime	C — Devolved limits	C — Community safety	B — Law & order priority	B — Strong on crime	C — Rehab focus	C — Prevention focus
💷 Economy	D — Lowest GDP in UK	B — New Welsh agency	C — Tax cuts pledge	B — Tax & business cuts	C — SME & rural	B — Rent controls & green invest
🌿 Climate	B — FGA 2015	A — Strong record	F — Anti-green agenda	D — Wind farm limits	A — Strong policies

Scores based on party manifestos, Senedd voting records and policy pledges as of March 2026. This is editorial analysis, not a party political broadcast.

SIR GAERFYRDDIN: PREDICTED RESULTS

Based on recent polling, 2024 General Election results and national trends, here’s how Sir Gaerfyrddin’s 6 Senedd seats are likely to be distributed. Plaid Cymru won Caerfyrddin in 2024 and came second in Llanelli. Reform pushed hard in Llanelli. Labour is defending both seats.

🟢 Plaid CymruPredicted: 2–3 seats ~42%

🩵 Reform UKPredicted: 1–2 seats ~27%

🔴 Welsh LabourPredicted: 1 seat ~18%

🔵 ConservativesPredicted: 0–1 seats ~8%

🟡 Lib Dems / OthersPredicted: 0 seats ~5%

Predictions based on ITV Cymru/Barn Cymru polling, constituency modelling and 2024 GE results. Marginal races could shift seats significantly.

📌 Key Carmarthenshire Races

• Seat 1–2: Plaid Cymru almost certain, Cefin Campbell and Nerys Evans likely in
• Seat 3: Reform UK’s Gareth Beer, strong favourite for a third seat based on 2024 performance
• Seat 4: Plaid vs Labour tussle, Adam Price or Labour’s lead candidate
• Seat 5–6: Reform, Tory or Labour depending on national swing, most unpredictable seats

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Welsh Government Prediction

National polls show Plaid Cymru leading with Reform UK close behind and Labour in freefall, potentially dropping to fourth place for the first time since devolution. Modelling suggests Plaid could win around 38 of 96 seats.

Most likely outcome: Plaid Cymru-led minority government, potentially with Green Party support. Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister of Wales, a historic first for a nationalist party.

A Plaid-Labour coalition remains possible, as Eluned Morgan has not ruled it out. A Reform-led government would require a coalition with Conservatives and others, polling suggests this falls short. The wildcard: a hung Senedd with no clear path to government.

THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT SENEDD ELECTION SINCE 1999.

For Carmarthenshire, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Six seats. A new voting system. An NHS in crisis. Schools underperforming. A cost of living crunch.

And for the first time in the history of devolution, Labour could lose power in Wales. Whether you’re a first-time voter at 16 or a lifelong voter, your voice in Sir Gaerfyrddin has never mattered more.

Register to vote: gov.uk/register-to-vote, Deadline midnight 20 April 2026.

📞 Electoral Services: 01267 228889 | ✉️ [email protected]

Carmarthenshire News Online — Independent news for Sir Gaerfyrddin

This page is for informational purposes. Party scores represent editorial analysis based on public policy records and manifestos. Share responsibly. Polling Day: Thursday 7 May 2026. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿