New Barn Cymru Poll puts Labour in comfortable lead over Conservatives in Wales

ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s latest opinion poll has revealed that support for Labour in Wales is at its highest since 2012.

The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, revealed that 51% of people in Wales would vote for Labour in a General, up 5% from our last poll in September.

As well as swings to Labour, the poll shows that some Conservative voters have shifted to Reform UK, the party which began as the Brexit Party.

Westminster voting intention:

Conservative – 18% (-5)

Labour – 51% (+5)

Lib Dem – 4% (-1)

Plaid Cymru – 13% (-2)

Reform UK – 8% (+3)

Green – 4% (+1)

Other – 2% (-1)

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, says we’re seeing “historic” gaps in voting intention:

“This is the second joint worst poll ever for the Conservatives in Wales going back to as long as we’ve had polling – that’s 15 years. For the Labour Party, it’s their joint third highest ever poll results for Westminster vote intention. And the gap between the two is now the second largest again that we’ve ever recorded.”

Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said:

“The poll demonstrates that the Conservatives in Wales are in difficult territory. Despite his appetite to strengthen the UK Government’s relationship with the Welsh Government, voters are clearly yet to be convinced that Rishi Sunak is prioritising Wales’ interests.

Labour in Wales on the other hand seems to be enjoying its strongest performance in the opinion polls in over a decade, which will give Keir Starmer and his team a boost as he looks to win the next general election.”

The poll also shows that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has failed to win the support of people in Wales with 65% not trusting the new Conservative leader to make the right decisions for Wales.

Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov. The poll aims to provide an insight into people’s beliefs, attitudes and opinions and to gain real-time feedback on public views in Wales.

YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,042 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between November 25 – December 1 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.