The Swingometer says red for Westminster and red for Cardiff

We can be a very emotional population when it comes to politics. For many our true emotions only surface when it comes to election time. The Welsh voter can be fickle but not so fickle as to be unpredictable. The Swingometer is not often wrong. The Swingometer predicts a strong shift in favour of the Labour party and potentially solidifying their seats at Westminster and in Wales.

The total number of UK parliamentary electors registered to vote as at 1 December 2022 in Wales is 2,304,700. Realistically there have only ever been three main parties in Wales. Labour Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. Despite the enormous Climate Change flag the Green Party have never figured. Quite simply, the other parties will run with any issue and make promises for that share of the votes. If we worked on the principle that only the three main parties were entered in the election race and that the voting system was changed to a Ranked Choice Voting System one party would need to secure 768,233 votes just to take an equal share with the other two parties.

There is a a bill to raise the number of members of the Senedd in Wales. This bill, introduced by Mick Antoniw MS, aims to increase the size of the Senedd to 96 members from the existing 60 members. Additionally, it proposes various changes such as decreasing the length between general elections, increasing the number of Deputy Presiding Officers, and changing the Senedd’s electoral system.

It is worth noting that there is a petition opposing this bill, which has garnered over 16,000 signatures. The petition argues against spending money on creating more politicians and suggests that funds should be allocated towards essential services like the NHS, schools, and roads.

In contrast the petition to rescind the 20mph garnered 468,388 signatures that is 299,845 short of the number we suggested would be an equal share of votes for one party at election time. It seems that this single issue has far more support and momentum than that, which seeks to curb the dynamics of the Senedd, the very source of the unpopular change in the law. The unrest in Wales that could potentially threaten Labour’s majority is primarily due to issues surrounding the 20mph law, the failings of the Welsh NHS and Welsh Education system.

In terms of political dynamics, the Welsh Government has a history of blaming the Westminster Government for its failings. There is speculation about whether this blame-shifting would persist if the Labour Party were to form the next UK Government. The challenges faced by Wales can be influenced by global politics and events beyond any government’s control.

At the bottom of the social and economic pyramid, ordinary working individuals risk facing hardships, and with economic depression, there may be an increase in crime rates. A socialist party might argue that the answer is equal distribution of wealth but that mantra only resurfaces close to election time.

Polls predict that Labour will gain seats in Wales and potentially win the 2026 election in the region, leaving the Conservatives with a limited number of seats. While the Welsh Labour party can lose some votes to minor parties, the most realistic scenario based on current polling is still a Labour victory.

Political decisions often have far-reaching consequences for a nation, and it’s important to make sure they are well-informed and strategically aligned with the people’s desires and aspirations.

Improvements in voter education, transparency, and active participation initiatives can lead to better outcomes. This, in turn, can help ensure that the political landscape aligns more closely with people’s desires and aspirations. Here are some suggestions that may improve the political landscape:

1. Strengthen voter education initiatives: Educate citizens on the political process, the roles and responsibilities of politicians and the importance of civic engagement.
2. Promote transparency and accountability: Ensure that all political decisions are made in the public interest and that there is a mechanism in place to hold politicians accountable for their actions.
3. Encourage active participation: Engage citizens in meaningful dialogues and consultations, providing them the opportunity to voice their concerns and make suggestions.

In the shadow of this predicted monumental swing to red at Westminster followed by a repeat of Labour Government in Wales are some big decisions to make, which if left unchallenged will see those 60 button pushers in Cardiff making them for us.


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