Plaid Cymru lead narrowly in the polls for May Senedd Election

According to recent polls, there are indications that Plaid Cymru is just narrowly leading in Wales for the upcoming Senedd election with Labour falling even further behind and Reform hot on Plaid’s heels, a new ITV Cymru Wales opinion poll has revealed.

The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, has revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share for the Senedd is now at its lowest at 14%, whilst Plaid Cymru are continuing to lead the polls with 30%. Reform UK is on 29% of the current vote share. 

Could Reform surge ahead?

Reform is fast growing in popularity amongst people who are dissatisfied with both Labour and the Conservative party and who see Reform as a better alternative to what has been a very disappointing time in the UK political landscape.

Both Labour in Wales and at Westminster have made some serious blunders that will cost them dearly at the ballot, from Vaughan Gething’s £200k scandal to Kier Starmer’s recent misfortune with his new ‘one in, one out’ immigration plan.

All the while, the Conservative party continues to fragment with senior Conservative party members such as Danny Kruger defecting to Reform as well as members of the local government authorities such as Swansea’s own Francesca O’Brien who defected to the Reform Party after having served as a Conservative Councillor for Swansea County Council.

The poll also highlights that support for Keir Starmer has plummeted, with 62% of those surveyed believing he is doing badly as Prime Minister.

Reform continues to grow but pundits and political analysts can’t be certain if Reform will sweep a majority or if they will come in close second with Plaid Cymru taking the win.

The Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election will be held on 7 May 2026.

To gain an overall majority in the Senedd, a party needs to win 31 seats. There are currently 60 seats in the Senedd, but this will increase to 96 from the 2026 election, changing the number of seats needed for a majority.

Voting System Reform

The voting system for the Senedd is being reformed, which will change the total number of seats and how they are allocated.

Total seats: From 2026, the number of seats will increase to 96.

Seats needed for a majority: A party will need 49 seats to secure a majority.

New voting system: The mixed-member system with constituency and regional lists will be replaced by a single “closed proportional list system.” Voters will cast one vote for a party or independent candidate, and seats will be allocated to parties in proportion to their vote share.

Plaid Cymru Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth MS said,

“Be under no illusion: the choice at the next election is clear – it is between a divisive Reform party that don’t care about Wales and would privatise our NHS, or a pro-Wales Plaid Cymru government that will stand up for Wales and deliver real change for the better for our communities.

“Labour’s support is falling because voters want change.

“People are overwhelmingly looking to Plaid Cymru for a better future for our country – one that is driven by Welsh values, that will deliver real results and stand up for fairness for Wales from Westminster.

“We’re urging everyone who want to see the right kind of change – to back the only plausible choice for a positive, pro-Wales government by backing Plaid Cymru.